What We Learned: Is this really the New York Rangers' last chance?
Late last week, Jacob Trouba met with the media to talk about how things have gone with him and the team over the last few months
Apart from acknowledging that he nixed a potential trade to the Detroit Red Wings, the biggest thing the New York Rangers captain talked about was the idea that this was the "last crack" for the current Rangers core to really make a deep playoff push.
He's right in the sense that he personally is likely to be traded at some point in the next year or so. That's also true of Artemi Panarin, an MVP candidate last season, and solid contributors like Braden Schneider. More pointedly, world-class Igor Shesterkin is eligible for a new contract, and it's going to be enormous, and a slew of restricted free agents including Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, and K'Andre Miller, all three of whom are coming off bridge deals with middling salaries.
So even with the cap going up, it doesn't really feel like it's only Trouba on his way out the door regardless of the outcome of the season — or, more specifically, the playoffs. But the thing I have been thinking about a lot since seeing Trouba's comments is how little the Rangers did this summer if this is indeed some sort of last hurrah. As far as moves that really impact the NHL roster, they really only brought in Reilly Smith and Sam Carrick, and made the decision to put Barclay Goodrow on waivers.
Now, it's easy to see why you'd be confident in a group like this: They won the Presidents' Trophy with 114 points last season after campaigns with 107 and 110 points, and went to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in three years. Now, their combined win total in those two conference finals is "four out of 12 games" and the year in between, they got bounced in the first round. But the idea that they can't just get a couple guys hot at the right time in the postseason isn't at all far-fetched. When you have a couple of elite forwards, one of the best defenders alive, and a recent Vezina winner, it doesn't take that much for things to bounce your way as long as the process is solid.
But the process is the problem with the Rangers, as it has been for their entire run at or near the top of the Eastern Conference. The so-called advanced stats repeatedly underwhelm, but they always have enough star power to score enough goals and make enough saves to win a ton in the regular season. Once they get to the playoffs, they can demolish bad teams (last year's Washington Capitals) or iffy goaltending situations (almost their entire 2022 ECF run was against backups, then Freddie Andersen couldn't stop traffic in the second round this past spring), but when they play an actual good team, the sledding gets real tough, real fast.
That doesn't mean the games aren't competitive. Five of the six games in the conference final against the Florida Panthers were decided by one goal, even if they felt a little more out of reach than that. The opening round against the New Jersey Devils was back and forth the entire time. The Tampa Bay Lightning might have won four in a row after starting the 2022 ECF down 2-0, but all those games were tight for the majority of the run time.
So Chris Drury making relatively few changes makes sense. Maybe not if you think of this as some sort of last hurrah, but in the big picture, the expectation is, and should be, that the Rangers will put up another 100-plus points and position themselves well for the playoffs, where anything can happen with a star goaltender getting hot and one of the most electrifying power plays in recent memory. On paper, they can beat anyone in a seven-game series (though that doesn’t necessarily make them favourites), and based on how things have gone for the core so far, one or two more good bounces will make them Cup finalists at a minimum.
But the other thing you have to say about this group is that even if Trouba is gone next spring or summer, and maybe they finally cut bait on Kakko, the majority of the players who make up this core aren’t going anywhere. More pointedly, it must be said that Trouba has been bad for some time now, and Kakko’s struggles are, shall we say, well-publicized. Conversely, Lafrenière is likely to get a big extension, and it seems like Shesterkin definitely will.
All the other big-name forwards have at least a few more years left with the exception of Panarin. He has another year after this coming one, and at the end of his deal, he’ll be 34. It’s easy to see a scenario where he goes short-term to stay on Broadway or is allowed to walk because someone else is willing to give him too much money and/or too many years. There’s no doubt he’s the best forward on the team, but you can’t go long with almost any guy at that age, and he might even be an exception to that rule. So again, most of that group of forwards isn’t going anywhere, even if we can expect their skills to diminish, as most of the top of that lineup is 30-plus.
The defense is a different story. Adam Fox is signed long-term but that's about it. Miller's extension is coming, and Ryan Lindgren's probably is too, but that still represents a lot to turn over. The Rangers don't seem to have many legitimate D prospects that are even close to NHL-ready, unless EJ Emery takes a big step this season.
All that said, the Rangers remain very good and are perhaps a truly great team. That will remain true when they trade Trouba, because they will be in a good position to bring back a player who can help them or free up the money to otherwise acquire an adequate replacement. The way he’s played in recent months, it shouldn’t be difficult.
But the broader idea that they have only one or two more legitimate kicks at the can feels about right, just not for the reasons he says. I just can’t stop thinking this is really weird for a captain to come out and say, because it’s just putting more pressure on a group that hasn’t been able to get the job done. He’s not wrong, but even if there’s some big-name turnover, that’s not a particularly big reason why the window may be closing. Aging would be. A few bad bets on certain draft choices (some of whom are still with the team, others who are long gone) would be. Continued bad playoff luck would be.
But mostly, I think the Rangers’ big issue has been, is, and will be that they are in a really strong Eastern Conference, and they don’t have enough depth to win games when the big guns are off the ice. They didn’t address that this summer, in large part because they didn’t have the financial flexibility. Moving on from some problem contracts is the first step to fixing that. But by the time they do it, most of their best players might have lost a couple MPH on the fastball. And then that’s a different river to cross.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Yeah that feels about right. Doesn't see as though they'd want to give the C to any of the kids or the trade bait, so…
Boston Bruins: The Bruins aren't the only supposed-to-be-good team that might have a real problem in goal to start the season, but they're probably the one with the biggest potential dropoff in quality.
Buffalo Sabres: I love reading absolutely anything into the very first preseason game, especially when you look at who the Sabres dressed (like 75 percent of their NHL roster) versus who the Penguins dressed (not that).
Calgary Flames: Hmm, if you say so.
Carolina Hurricanes: Count Rod Brind'Amour among the "why do we need so many preseason games?" crowd. He's right, of course.
Chicago: Oh yeah the locals are gonna give up on this team if they have another bad season. They definitely won't come back once all the extremely good young prospects are in their early 20s and ready to kill the Central Division. They'll stay away forever.
Colorado Avalanche: That's right.
Columbus Blue Jackets: This is the correct thing to say here but you gotta wonder how that actually manifests given the roster.
Dallas Stars: Seems like fans enjoyed the new streaming app as the way to watch the first preseason game. We'll see if it holds up all year, but so far, so good.
Detroit Red Wings: Oh no, do not call it that.
Edmonton Oilers: Looks like Evander Kane will probably be out until January or February. Gonna be interesting to see how they handle his absence with respect to the cap.
Florida Panthers: The Panthers lost some name-brand defensemen in the past couple summers but I wouldn't be too worried about it if I were them.
Los Angeles Kings: I would love to have an opinion of this team other than "they'll be on the playoff bubble and if they make it they'll lose in the first round," but I can't get there right now.
Minnesota Wild: Now this is interesting.
Montreal Canadiens: How could you possibly know the answer to this anytime soon?
Nashville Predators: I'm just so interested in how this goes. It's not a short-term experiment by any means.
New Jersey Devils: You almost never see the three-year bridge deal. Really fascinating.
New York Islanders: That's not especially encouraging, all things considered. The Isles are another of those teams that ought to be set in goal but instead are plagued with question marks.
New York Rangers: Yeah he really needs to make the jump here.
Ottawa Senators: With this franchise, I'll straight up believe it when I see it.
Philadelphia Flyers: No pressure on this kid or anything. Just gotta save the franchise. Don't worry about it.
Pittsburgh Penguins: That's what's up.
San Jose Sharks: The entire article here could just say "because winning and losing won't matter for at least another couple years."
Seattle Kraken: Citation needed.
St. Louis Blues: Not to overload your plate or anything, bud…
Tampa Bay Lightning: The power play might be the most intriguing thing they're changing this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs: I don't like to be sleepy either!
Utah [fill in the blank later]: Gotta wonder what the audience size is for streaming Utah games back in Arizona.
Vancouver Canucks: This is not encouraging news for those "quick return" hopes.
Vegas Golden Knights: Every twist gets a little more interesting but it seems like kind of a non-story at the end of the day? Weird.
Washington Capitals: You hope for the best here. Could be fun if it works out.
Winnipeg Jets: Brutal news.
Play of the Weekend
I saw him score like 20 of these last season. It's magic!!!
Gold Star Award
I watched NHL hockey this weekend. So cool. Hell yeah I love hockey. Wow.
Minus of the Weekend
Having said that, is it hard to get into preseason hockey when you're like, "Is that guy wearing No. 56? Who is that? Is that a real guy?" for half the game.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "Johnsie19" is in the zone:
Weegar for Lekkerimaki
Trade would have to be done half way through the season after the canucks accrue some daily cap space.
I think Weegar would be the perfect 3rd dman for the Canucks to make a few playoff pushes.
It's a lot to give up considering Lekkerimaki is our top prospect and fresh of WJC top player award.
It's a big swing. I don't know if it's smart or not but it would give the Canucks a better chance to win for the next 2/3 yrs.
