FANTALYTICA: A Finnish Christmas
Welcome to another installment of the Fantalytica column. Every week, Fantalytica provides a granular, fantasy perspective about a group of prospects. Following the previous column, which honed in on a group of Russian prospects, we decided to fly northwest to Scandinavia, specifically Finland.
Before we dig into the best prospects in the Liiga, I’d like to quickly review the metric definitions used for quantifying our projections.
Fantalytica is a weighted fantasy league metric that creates a tangible, predicted value of an NHL prospect before they set foot on an NHL sheet of ice. The goal of this metric is to provide casual, competitive, and diehard fantasy hockey owners with a glimpse into the future of NHL players. These algorithms provide all fantasy hockey owners with additional knowledge to use when evaluating a prospect. Fantalytica combines the rules of any fantasy league to provide the most accurate predictions for all NHL prospects. Although Fantalytica provides a predictive value for a prospect, it does not represent the value a prospect may have to an official NHL organization – it provides a fantasy driven prediction that should only be used to evaluate a prospect on what they could provide from a Fantasy perspective. The system displays a value that simulates a close prediction of a player’s fantasy production starting after his 200th game in the NHL (82 game season).
Metrics
CURRENT VALUE: The broadest metric of Fantalytica, the Current Value metric represents a conservative prediction of a prospect, the best and simplest visualization for an owner to understand the value of a prospect to their online club.
DRAFT DAY VALUE: This metric is adjusted to the age when they were drafted. Essentially going back in time to replicate what their Current Value would be on the prospect’s draft day.
AGE ADJUSTED POTENTIAL VALUE: Providing a conservative metric for prospects wasn’t enough. We needed to provide more, to really understand the ceiling of a prospect. The Age Adjusted Potential Value is a loftier prediction of a prospect’s future production. This value weighs age differently, therefore creating a large discrepancy between any two prospects. This metric was created to give owners a better understanding of the potential a prospect can have, and how different all prospect can develop at different stages of their career.
GROWTH FROM DRAFT DAY: This metric shows the difference in projected points from the day they were drafted, to the current projected points. This metric is very simple and very effective because it shows if the prospect has declined/inclined over the years.
We used these rules to quantify this week’s metrics.
Goals (4), Assists (2), Hits (0.5), Blocks (0.5), Plus/Minus (1), SOGs (0.75), Powerplay Points (1), Short Handed Points (2), FOW (0.2), FOL (-0.1)
Coming off a WJC U20 Gold Medal this past Christmas break, the Finns have proven to be an international threat. With proven consistent talent funneling to the NHL draft every year, it seemed they were due some hardware. A combination of skill, speed, and IQ has been the mantra of the Suomi for centuries. Today we’re going to analyze some of the brightest prospects playing overseas in the Finnish Liiga.
We’ve taken the 10 best prospects in the Liiga and scatter plotted their performance thus far.
It should come to no surprise to anyone that Rasmus Kupari leads the pack by a large margin. His play reminds us of a Sebastian Aho & Sasha Barkov hybrid. His calculated movements deceive defenders on a nightly basis. His elite vision and accuracy provides his team with an uncanny passing ability, something that is difficult to teach, if at all. A 2018 1st round pick to the LA Kings, Rasmus had some question marks leading up to the draft – his top end speed wasn’t top end. And it’s still not where he wants it to be. Nevertheless, his draft position represents the skill this young man possesses. Watch for his emergence next year… we cannot foresee LA wanting him to marinade in the Liiga for an additional season when they are desperate for young and fruitful talent.
Just below elite status is Niklas Nordgren and Alexandre Texier. Among these two, Nordgren takes the cake for energy. His relentless work ethic and style of play is exactly why the Blackhawks took him in the upper half of the 2018 NHL draft. He flies up and down the ice, providing supplemental scoring and primary fore-checking. He is a guy who could be undervalued in dynasty leagues due to the lack of public peripheral data (hits & blocks). Alex Texier was taken in 2017 by the Blue Jackets – he played in the French pro league the year leading up to the draft. He was a key forward for his team that year and as the season finished he was nearly a point per game in the playoffs. After a great rookie season in the Liiga, he decided to follow it up with an even more impressive sophomore campaign. Nearly a point per game, Alex is a prototypical 2nd line winger. He will most likely obtain 15-20 goals a year in the NHL, and a standard amount of peripheral support. CBJ is surely talking to him on a weekly basis to see when he wants to come play in the AHL. A season on North American ice will prove whether Alex is up for the challenge or not.
A name that has surely gone unnoticed this year is Aleksi Heponiemi. The stalwart of the 2017-2018 Swift Current Broncos, Aleksi is a pure playmaker. He has elite vision and passing abilities. He will find you on the ice. Aleksi is more of a one dimensional player, which is why we haven’t seen him leap towards Kupari territory, despite a terrific stat line. A low peripheral provider, his ceiling will be high in Fantasy if he can find a spot in the Panthers young top-6 one day.
Jesse Ylonen was an early 2nd round choice by the Montreal Canadiens this year. He is having a great year in the Liiga with the Pelicans. He is no rookie when it comes to professional play, Jesse found his way into the early 2nd by producing in Finland’s 2nd best professional league. Overshadowed by his older countrymen, his value is probably lower than his true potential. Consider picking him up before he has a breakout next year.
One of the better Finnish defense prospects in the world, Oskari Laaksonen has found himself producing at a terrific pace this year. Oskari had a weaker performance than most this December at the WJC U20 tournament. That’s OK! He couldn’t find the ice time he wanted because he was on a team filled to the brim with talent. Look for Oskari to be available in your Dynasty league, especially on the waiver wire.
After we get below the third tier of these prospects, the chance of NHL success dwindles. Lauri Pajuniemi, Eetu Luostarinen, Eetu Tuulola, and Petrus Palmu bottom out the top 10 prospects in the Liiga. A previously touted steal of his draft class, Palmu has lost a lot of confidence this year. After leaving Utica in the AHL, Palmu has tried to regain confidence in his home country. Palmu likely fits into a 3rd or 4th line role when he is at his best, don’t expect too much from him. Tuulola seems to be the most interesting of the pack – he is producing at a pretty solid rate right now.
To conclude this column, I’d like to remind you all that these are educated fantasy hockey projections and must be taken with a small grain of salt. Not every Finn will end up like Sasha Barkov or Teemu Selanne.
For questions about Fantalytica, please reach out to us via email (Fantalytica@gmail.com) or mention us on Twitter @Fantalytica. Our site is still under construction, but a demo site is currently up (Fantalytica.com).
