The Columbus Blue Jackets should be selling. While they’re technically three points out of the final playoff spot in the Central Division, their chances of ultimately ending up in the post-season seem slim (between 2 and 10 percent according to predictive models from MoneyPuck, The Athletic, and HockeyViz) and getting past the first round would be even more of a longshot. 

While Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen almost certainly won’t make the move involving a right defenceman that he should, it does seem likely that another one, David Savard, is playing his final games in navy and red.

On the surface, Savard seems like a dream acquisition for a team seeking a cheap defensive presence on the backend; he’s played top-four and rather difficult minutes for the Blue Jackets in recent years with very strong underlying numbers, and on top of that he possesses all of the classic “stay-at-home” traits that general managers covet, whether it’s size, strength, or snarl. Add in some poor on-ice goaltending and a pretty cheap rental contract and the stage would appear to be set for what could be the steal of the deadline. But are Savard’s underlying results reflected in his on-ice skillset, or is he a player who’s benefitted wholly from an extremely structured system and whose game could collapse in a new environment?

That’s where a combo of stats and the good old eye test come in handy.{