Fantasy Forecast: Regression candidates to monitor
The world of fantasy hockey is nothing more than a trapeze artist balancing atop a razor-thin wire, high above the ground. Only in this case, absolutely no one wants to watch (or hear about) your squad's successes or failures.
But you, as the tight rope walker, care very much. You're attempting to balance the right amount of patience on struggling stars, and the wherewithal to bail on streaky heaters before the bottom falls out. To recognize pure production versus the empty calorie points. It's a tricky game and one that demands attention to detail.
Predicting regression or continued results - positive and negative alike - is the best way to do it. There are subtle, and not so subtle, hints that can help formulate those decisions. On-ice shooting percentage, PDO, IPP (Individual Points Percentage), deployment meters, team strength, expected goals scored and saved above average, and much much more.
Unfortunately, this is an inexact science. We've seen players buck the trend and spend an entire season on the PDO/shooting percentage bender. We've seen stars suffer through months of deflated production due to the inverse. But, if we take the entire sample size and spread it over time, these indications will more often than not point you in the right direction.
With that in mind, today, we're going to dive into a host of players that are over or underachieving and whether or not they're setting themselves to be slapped in the face by the regression monster. Some for the good. Some for the bad.
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