After his first eight games of the 2023-24 season, Nashville Predators winger Filip Forsberg totaled seven points, though just one goal. The lack of scoring was due to a 2.8% conversion rate, scoring once on 36 shots. For a player who averaged 14.3% shooting over the prior three seasons, it is a notable deviation that leaves his fantasy value understated. While that shooting percentage will positively regress, it’s worth asking how far it can go, what his new role under coach Andrew Brunette is, and what the 29-year-old star can offer in the fantasy game. 

Last year, among the 331 forwards that skated at least 750 minutes at all strengths, the average shooting percentage was 12.3%. One standard deviation below that was roughly 8.5% shooting, so we will use that as the cut-off for low-percen