EP Rinkside's top 20 right wingers going into the 2024-25 NHL season

Everyone has some idea of how they expect the 2024-25 NHL season to play out. As we know all too well, though, it doesn't often play out that way. This sport is exceptionally difficult to predict. Even the best standings forecasts often miss by about 10 points on average – per team, not in total.

Frankly, you could argue it's silly to even try to make a serious projection of what's ahead. On the other hand, it is September…

So, we're going to try our best to make some predictions anyway, with the fourth run of EP Rinkside's annual NHL player rankings. If you're new here, then here's the breakdown. We go position-by-positioning, ranking the 20 best players and sorting them into tiers based on how I expect them to perform in the upcoming season.

You might expect this to be based purely on numbers, but I can assure you that I'm not just sorting by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and calling it a day. I take a more holistic approach, leaning on my own expertise, TopDownHockey's WAR model, Corey Sznajder's manually tracked microstats, and data from our partners at InStat Hockey. This should result in a more balanced and reasonable ranking than any one method would alone.

This year, I've also decided to change up the presentation a bit. In the past, I've used graphics directly inspired by my player cards, showing both projected WAR for the coming season and six of the player in question's strongest attributes, selected from a set of data points, to give a quick look at what these guys do best. 

Inspired by the work done by EP Rinkside's prospect writers, I've chosen to take a different tack this time around. While I won't go quite so far as adopting the nine-point rating system – nobody wants to hear me talk in detail about skating technique – the new graphics include projected player ratings for the 2024-25 season in four categories: offensive zone play, defence, transition play, and miscellaneous. Departing from the percentile rankings I use on player cards, I've gone with a 1-to-10 rating based on projected finish to respect the uncertainty at play here. The idea is to provide a broader impression of every player's strengths and weaknesses instead of focusing entirely on the positive parts of their game.

Here's an example:

Here's a list of the metrics used, all of them per 60 5-on-5 projections for the 2024-25 season based on the previous three seasons of results. I've also marked their source (TopDownHockey = TDH, AllThreeZones = A3Z, InStat = IS, NHL = NHL)

Offensive Zone

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's generation of expected goals (i.e. shots weighed by likelihood of going in) when he's on the ice (TDH)
• Slot Shots: Scoring chances from the slot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Shots: Shots from other areas of the offensive zone (A3Z)
• Finishing Touch: Goals scored above expected given quality of shots (TDH)
• Slot Passes: Passes to the slot resulting in a shot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Passing: Passes to other areas of the offensive zone resulting in a shot (A3Z)

Defence

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's prevention of expected goals when he's on the ice (TDH)
• D-Zone Puck Touches: Puck touches within the defensive zone (A3Z)
• Takeaways: Pucks stolen from opponents (IS)
• Puck Battles: 50/50 battles for the puck engaged in (IS)
• Body Checks: Hits as counted by the league (away only to filter out recording bias) (NHL)
• Forechecking: Offensive zone puck recoveries and pressures on opposing defencemen (A3Z)

Transition

• Transition Workload: Transition plays with the puck (A3Z)
• Transition Possession: Rate at which the player makes transition plays with possession as opposed to dump-ins and clears (A3Z)
• Transition Carries: Transition plays by carrying the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Passes: Transition plays by passing the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Offence: Shots and passes leading to slots off the rush (A3Z)

Miscellaneous

• Speed: Weighed combination of a player's top speed and frequency with which they exceed 22 miles per hour (NHL)
• Puck Touches: Puck touches in any zone (IS)
• Turnover Avoidance: Turnovers per puck touch (IS)
• Deking: One-on-one dekes (IS)
• Penalty +/-: Net non-coincidental minor penalties drawn versus taken (TDH)

Player positions used in this list will be based directly on the work of @NHL_Rosters on Twitter, who has been running the most accurate depth charts in the league for several years now. There's no doubt a lot of flexibility in the positions that players (especially wingers) play, so it is very likely that if you notice an egregious absence the player will be included in a forthcoming piece. I am aware that some players listed here are currently expected to play at right wing or centre to begin the 2024-25 season, but this stuff is so touch-and-go that it's just easier to use one source and stick to it.

Tier 1: Generational

Tier 2: MVP Contenders

1. Nikita Kucherov - Tampa Bay Lightning

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

What can you say about Kucherov at this point? Only Connor McDavid has scored more points in the last 10 regular seasons. In the last ten playoffs, Kucherov has the most goals, primary assists, secondary assists, and points. He’s scored at a 100-point pace in six straight seasons, culminating in a career year in which he became one of only four players in NHL history to tally 100 assists. He’s probably the second-best passer in the sport, who also happens to have scored at a 40-plus goal pace in six of the past seven seasons. He’s always got the puck, he creates offence in every way imaginable, his hands are unreal, and when he’s got time and space – like on the power play – he’s essentially unstoppable.

2. David Pastrňák - Boston Bruins

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Few play the game with the flair and flash that Pastrňák brings to the Bruins. What was supposed to be a humbling season without Patrice Bergeron to shoulder the load in Boston instead saw the 28-year-old level up his game across the board, compensating for the gravity effect on his finishing touch by becoming a stronger playmaker and less absent-minded defensive player. Few spend as much time with the puck on their stick as Pastrňák does, and nobody is more utterly brazen when it comes to trying to take on opponents one-on-one. The turnovers that frequently accompany this ambition aren’t ideal, but they’re a small price to pay for the well-rounded offensive attack he brings on a nightly basis.

3. Matthew Tkachuk - Florida Panthers

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Tkachuk’s dizzying pair of performances in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons finally dipped a bit this year, though admittedly, I can’t imagine he cares in the slightest. The playmaking power forward’s finishing touch nosedived last year, although fortunately, he gets to the net-front so often that he still tallied 26 markers. What Tkachuk lacks in foot speed and flash, he more than makes up for with a brilliant ability to get the puck where it needs to go in the offensive zone and create mountains of scoring opportunities both for himself and especially his linemates. Add in a willingness to make defenders’ lives hell by chasing down pucks and finishing checks and a knack for drawing penalties, and you’ve got a man made for playoff hockey.

Tier 3 - Franchise Wingers

4. Mikko Rantanen - Colorado Avalanche

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Rantanen put up the highest point pace of his NHL career in the 2023-24 season and put up his eye-popping sixth consecutive post-season above a point per game. The immovable 6-foot-4 Finn is a high-end driver of offence both at even strength and on the power play – coupling strong passing ability with elite finishing never hurts. His efficiency at 5-on-5 has suffered a bit in recent seasons, especially when it comes to playmaking, and defensive engagement and involvement is increasingly a problem, but the workhorse (who leads all forwards in time on ice in the past three seasons) still puts the puck in the net.

5. Mitchell Marner - Toronto Maple Leafs

It’s a tough time to be Marner, at least to the extent that it can possibly be tough to be a guy making over $10 million a year. The Leafs’ fanbase has chosen the pending UFA as its scapegoat for yet another postseason disappointment, turning a valid debate over the advisability of extending his contract into a farce where his elite skills are glossed over. That’s not to say that everything was totally peachy in his game this year; a nagging injury contributed to him losing a significant bit of footspeed and accompanied a drop in his underlying impacts at both ends of the ice. That said, he’s still one of the game’s truly elite passers, able to funnel pucks onto the tape in the slot like almost nobody else. Even in his infamous first-round performance, he led the playoffs in passes to the slot per game by a mile. Will a contract year bring out the best in Marner, or will the pressure drag him down?

6. William Nylander - Toronto Maple Leafs

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Nylander, once the sin-eater of Toronto’s underperforming star forwards, is firmly in favour after notching two straight 40-goal seasons, flirting with 100 points, and signing a big extension with the team. His creative offensive game and flashy style have allowed him to thrive regardless of which centre is on his unit, and an ability to put the puck in the net consistently — even in the playoffs — has made his lack of physicality and defensive engagement a lot more forgivable for fans.

7. Sam Reinhart - Florida Panthers

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

For years, Reinhart has flown under the radar as a steady and talented two-way forward, capable of shutting down top competition while facilitating his linemates and putting the puck in the net at roughly a 30-35 goal pace. Then he went and scored 57 goals, the second-most in the NHL, including a league-leading 27 on the power play, and potted the Cup-winner for good measure. I can’t imagine many people expect him to repeat this performance and shoot 34 percent on the power play again, but even with a full regression, he’s a hell of a hockey player.

Tier 4 - All Star

8. Zach Hyman - Edmonton Oilers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

We’ve seen a lot of players on these lists that are good at everything, but there’s also a virtue in being excellent at a few things. Hyman isn’t much of a passer, can’t score from range, does little in the defensive zone, doesn’t strip pucks or throw hits, does almost nothing in transition, doesn’t have blazing speed, and doesn’t spend a lot of time with the puck. What he does is get to the net by any means necessary, whether it’s getting open for a pass to the slot or carrying it from the corners directly to the net-front with wild disregard for his own well-being. Nobody creates more chances from the inner slot, and combined with battling and forechecking, that makes him the perfect running mate for No. 97.

9. Matt Boldy - Minnesota Wild

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

Here’s a tip: buy Boldy stock. His point totals may not jump off the page — a 31-goal, 69-point pace in his first two full seasons in the NHL — but under the hood, it’s tough to imagine a more promising analytical profile than Boldy's. He’s an extremely efficient goal scorer at 5-on-5, a significant driver at both ends of the ice, generates chances for himself and his linemates at high-end clips, and has great hands whether he’s deking defencemen or stripping opponents of the puck. Locked in long-term and primed to spend plenty of time with Kirill Kaprizov, the sky’s the limit.

10. Nikolaj Ehlers - Winnipeg Jets

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Ehlers was once again stuck in third line minutes in the 2023-24 season, and you probably won’t be shocked to hear that I think that’s a complete farce. Ehlers has his flaws — namely uneven defence and a lack of physicality — but he’s an absolutely dynamic presence on the ice, pushing play in the right direction at an elite rate, carrying the puck in transition like few others (and with relatively few turnovers), flying past defenders, and putting pucks in the net at extreme efficiency both by shooting and finding his linemates. He’s a pending UFA and hopefully ends up somewhere he’s appreciated by his coach.

11. Jesper Bratt - New Jersey Devils

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

If there was any doubt about Bratt’s capabilities, they were put to rest after a career-best season in which he led the Devils in points and produced above a point-per-game for the first time in his career. His dynamic offensive skill set is perfect for the way his team plays; he’s speedy, skilled with the puck, able to advance play through the neutral zone and turn entries into dangerous scoring chances, and has strong finishing upside and passing touch. Like his closest analogue, Carter Verhaeghe, this run-and-gun style does have some defensive consequences, but Bratt’s relative lack of giveaways helps limit the damage.

Tier 5 - Great First Liners

12. Mark Stone - Vegas Golden Knights

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

While severe and nagging injuries have dramatically limited Stone’s availability in the past three seasons, when he is in the lineup few wingers have the two-way impact in all situations. His defensive prowess is well-documented, as is his penchant for puck thievery, but he continues to rank among the top passers in the league both in volume and chance creation. His ability to win pucks on his own and find linemates in transition is equalled by few others.

13. Kevin Fiala - Los Angeles Kings

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

In the high-scoring era we’re currently in, 73 points isn’t likely to blow anybody away. But sometimes, you have to dig a bit deeper into the process to uncover what makes a player so talented. Fiala has some of the best and most underrated puck skills in the league, always seeming to have it on his stick and carrying one of the heaviest workloads in transition, in the offensive zone, and even in his own end. He can deke, pass the puck, and shoot at a high level and rank as a top play-driver for a reason. Can he increase his career high and give the Kings the top scorer they desperately need to take the next step?

14. 
Jordan Kyrou - St. Louis Blues

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

You wouldn’t think it is just looking at the hockey card stats, but the 2023-24 season was an encouraging bounce-back for Kyrou as an all-around player. The thrilling rushing winger enjoyed the best goal-scoring season of his career in 2022-23, but it came at the expense of playmaking and defence. Last year, on the other hand, his finishing touch regressed a bit but those other aspects were back in full force. He ranked in the top five percent of forwards in chances, chance assists, passes, passes to the slot, entries, rush offence, puck touches, and dekes, evidence of just how dangerous he can be with the puck when he’s on his game. Nobody would mistake him for a Selke candidate but he understands that a rushing game begins with getting pucks in the defensive zone and improved in that regard last season as well. The question now is, just how high is his upside.

15. Wyatt Johnston - Dallas Stars

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Some young players come to the NHL fully-formed, ready for stardom. Some struggle at first and then take massive leaps forward. Others just get better seemingly every day, steadily building up to their ceiling. Johnston seems to be an example of that third category. In the first half of the 2023-24 season, he looked pretty similar to what he was in his rookie season, pacing for 21 goals and 46 points, but that leapt to a 43-goal, 84-goal pace in the second half, and by the playoffs he was the Stars’ top forward. I do have a few reservations about aspects of his game — his primary assist rates massively outpaced his passing metrics, and I think that’s likely to regress unless we see a big step forward in that department — but he’s already one of the top chance creators in the league.

16. Pavel Buchnevich - St. Louis Blues

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

A relative down-year for Buchnevich in terms of production (mostly because of poor puck luck and unusually mediocre finishing) doesn’t diminish my bullishness on him as one of the most effective two-way wingers in the game. His puck-moving ability in all three zones and ability to avoid turning it over in the process has given him very strong playdriving metrics throughout his career and helped his linemates generate better opportunities.

17. Travis Konecny - Philadelphia Flyers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Sometimes a player takes a huge leap forward and it doesn’t show up in their counting stats. Such is the case with Konecny, who, despite setting modest career-highs in goals and points, has still not exceeded 70 in a season and didn’t get a lot of attention this season. Under the hood, however, his offensive game flourished at 5-on-5 as he trailed only Kucherov among right wings in terms of passes leading to scoring chances.

Tier 6 - First Liners

18. Lucas Raymond - Detroit Red Wings

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

All the pieces haven’t fully come together for Raymond, but with each passing season, the skill set becomes more and more evident, and it’s a matter of time before he fully takes the leap. He led the Red Wings in points as a 21-year-old, setting career highs in goals and assists in the process and producing very well at 5-on-5. While not yet in the high-end of the NHL at any one particular thing (besides drawing penalties), and putting up bizarrely poor play-driving metrics, Raymond seems poised to be the Wings’ franchise forward for the next decade.

19. Juraj Slafkovský - Montreal Canadiens

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

After a difficult rookie season, it was tempting to draw comparisons between Slafkovský and another big-bodied, puck-protecting winger drafted high after impressive international showings against men — Kaapo Kakko. But where Kakko’s game has completely stalled due in large part to a lack of passing skill, Slafkovský's flourished in year two. He’ll never dazzle with speed, but his offensive impact skyrocketed as a sophomore as he added exactly that playmaking spark he needed to return him to the Rantanen trajectory. Upping the production at 5-on-5 is the next step, but it’s a lot easier to envision him hitting his upside now than it was a year ago.

20. Owen Tippett - Philadelphia Flyers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Three seasons ago, spending his draft-plus-five year split between the NHL and AHL and tossed into a disappointing Claude Giroux trade return, the idea that Tippett would become a high-end player in the big leagues seemed like a bit of a lost cause. The past two years with the Flyers, however, have shown how much potential he’s still got. One of the fastest players in the league, Tippett is a scoring chance machine at 5-on-5 who creates off the rush at an elite rate, steals pucks from opponents, and makes things happen all over the ice. There’s a next step to be taken here but I wouldn’t bet against 70+ point upside.