EP Rinkside's top 20 defencemen going into the 2024-25 NHL season

Everyone has some idea of how they expect the 2024-25 NHL season to play out. As we know all too well, though, it doesn't often play out that way. This sport is exceptionally difficult to predict. Even the best standings forecasts often miss by about 10 points on average – per team, not in total.

Frankly, you could argue it's silly to even try to make a serious projection of what's ahead. On the other hand, it is September…

So, we're going to try our best to make some predictions anyway, with the fourth run of EP Rinkside's annual NHL player rankings. If you're new here, then here's the breakdown. We go position-by-positioning, ranking the 20 best players and sorting them into tiers based on how I expect them to perform in the upcoming season.

You might expect this to be based purely on numbers, but I can assure you that I'm not just sorting by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and calling it a day. I take a more holistic approach, leaning on my own expertise, TopDownHockey's WAR model, Corey Sznajder's manually tracked microstats, and data from our partners at InStat Hockey. This should result in a more balanced and reasonable ranking than any one method would alone.

This year, I've also decided to change up the presentation a bit. In the past, I've used graphics directly inspired by my player cards, showing both projected WAR for the coming season and six of the player in question's strongest attributes, selected from a set of data points, to give a quick look at what these guys do best. 

Inspired by the work done by EP Rinkside's prospect writers, I've chosen to take a different tack this time around. While I won't go quite so far as adopting the nine-point rating system – nobody wants to hear me talk in detail about skating technique – the new graphics include projected player ratings for the 2024-25 season in four categories: offensive zone play, defence, transition play, and miscellaneous. Departing from the percentile rankings I use on player cards, I've gone with a 1-to-10 rating based on projected finish to respect the uncertainty at play here. The idea is to provide a broader impression of every player's strengths and weaknesses instead of focusing entirely on the positive parts of their game.

Here's an example:

Here's a list of the metrics used, all of them per 60 5-on-5 projections for the 2024-25 season based on the previous three seasons of results. I've also marked their source (TopDownHockey = TDH, AllThreeZones = A3Z, InStat = IS, NHL = NHL)

Offensive Zone

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's generation of expected goals (i.e. shots weighed by likelihood of going in) when he's on the ice (TDH)
• Chances: Scoring chances (A3Z)
• Perimeter Shots: Shots from other areas of the offensive zone (A3Z)
• Finishing Touch: Goals scored above expected given quality of shots (TDH)
• Chance Assists: Passes leading directly to a scoring chance (A3Z)
• Perimeter Passing: Passes to other areas of the offensive zone resulting in a shot (A3Z)

Defence

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's prevention of expected goals when he's on the ice (TDH)
• D-Zone Puck Touches: Puck touches within the defensive zone (A3Z)
• Takeaways: Pucks stolen from opponents (IS)
• Puck Battles: 50/50 battles for the puck engaged in (IS)
• D-Zone Retrievals: Loose puck retrievals in the defensive zone (A3Z)
• Rush Chance Prevention: Chances against per zone entry target by an opposing player (A3Z)

Transition

• Transition Workload: Transition plays with the puck (A3Z)
• Transition Possession: Rate at which the player makes transition plays with possession as opposed to dump-ins and clears (A3Z)
• Transition Carries: Transition plays by carrying the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Passes: Transition plays by passing the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Offence: Shots and passes leading to slots off the rush (A3Z)

Miscellaneous

• Speed: Weighed combination of a player's top speed and frequency with which they exceed 22 miles per hour (NHL)
• Puck Touches: Puck touches in any zone (IS)
• Turnover Avoidance: Turnovers per puck touch (IS)
• Penalty +/-: Net non-coincidental minor penalties drawn versus taken (TDH)
• Body Checks: Hits as counted by the league (away only to filter out recording bias) (NHL)

Player positions used in this list will be based directly on the work of @NHL_Rosters on Twitter, who has been running the most accurate depth charts in the league for several years now. 

Tier 1: Superstars

1. Cale Makar - Colorado Avalanche

2023 Ranking: Tier 1+

Makar continues to build his case as the best defenceman of his generation, attaining a career-high of 90 points in addition to his fourth consecutive year finishing in the top three of Norris Trophy voting. In a vacuum, nobody does what Makar is capable of doing on the ice; if you look at both the quality of his own scoring chances and the quality that he creates for his linemates, he’s absolutely on an island. He’s one of the fastest defencemen in the league, possesses the hands of a superstar forward, is unstoppable in the offensive zone, and more than holds his own defensively despite a relatively small stature. The underlying numbers took a tumble this year as he surprisingly struggled in his minutes without Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, but it would surprise me to see that trend continue.

2. Adam Fox - New York Rangers

2023 Ranking: Tier 1

Sometimes it pays to be low-maintenance. While many of the top defenders of today’s game emulate forwards with flashy skating, dekes, and end-to-end rushes, Fox plays a sound, stable two-way game that helps his team in all situations. His slow skating and aversion to carrying the puck in transition keep him off highlight reels, but Fox is arguably the best puck-moving defenceman in hockey not only because of his elite passing ability but his lack of mistakes. In the past three seasons, he ranks first by far in the AllThreeZones dataset in terms of zone exit success, with a 90 percent success rate. This extends to his work in the defensive zone, where he’s unmatched in terms of turning puck retrievals into clean transition plays. Add this subtle impact to his consistent 70-plus point totals, underrated goal-scoring, and play on the man advantage and you have an unreal two-way defender.

3. Quinn Hughes - Vancouver Canucks

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Placing Hughes in the third tier of defencemen was not a popular move entering the 2023-24 season (affecting some analysts more than others), but frankly, it was defensible considering where his game was at the time. I said in last year’s column that while he was obviously among the most talented blueliners in the NHL, I thought he had another gear to hit in terms of results: “Hughes’ hesitance to take the puck into the slot himself instead of passing it around the perimeter makes his contribution to scoring chances lag far behind his contribution to shots.” Last year, he indeed significantly increased his offensive impact while also continuing to build his defensive game, and the result was not only his first top-eight finish in Norris voting but a blow-out win. The only question now is whether this is his new normal.

4. Charlie McAvoy - Boston Bruins

2023 Ranking: Tier 1

Sometimes overshadowed by his cohort of elite defencemen, McAvoy, year-in-year-out, can be counted on to play smart two-way hockey, moving the puck crisply from his own zone, making the right decisions without it, and creating offence at 5-on-5. The power play is still inexplicably an adventure for him as it has been throughout his career, and while that’s cost him plenty of Norris votes over the years, his impact at even strength on the penalty kill more than makes up for it.

Tier 2: Franchise Defencemen

5. Miro Heiskanen - Dallas Stars

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

From his first shift in the NHL, Heiskanen’s elite skating and ambition with the puck have dazzled fans and forced opponents to hold on for dear life when he’s on the ice. No blueliner is as willing to take on other defenders one-on-one, and no one gets away with it like him, but despite that, he somehow manages to get back and play elite defence as well, protecting the middle of the rush and engaging physically more than most other high-end players at his position. Despite all this, Heiskanen has never received Norris love (peaking in seventh place in the 2022-23 season), the result of his admittedly feeble shot and less impressive point totals. No matter what, despite a lack of individual accolades, he does what he needs to help his team win games.

6. Roman Josi - Nashville Predators

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Is it an even-numbered year? Expect Josi to contend for the Norris. After winning in 2020 and finishing as the runner-up in 2022, he returned to the ballot in 2024 by helping the Predators make their improbable run to the playoffs with 36 points in the consequential final 28 games of the campaign (in which Nashville went 20-5-3). As always, Josi was a force with the puck, leading defencemen in zone entries while putting up elite chance, shot, chance assist, and shot assist numbers. He’s still not the best defensive blueliner out there, and the Preds wisely kept him away from the toughest matchups this season to maximize his best features and mitigate his weaknesses.

7. Rasmus Dahlin - Buffalo Sabres

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Despite scoring a career-high 20 goals in the 2023-24 season, Dahlin disappointed a lot of people after regressing to a 60-point pace from 77 in the previous year. Indeed, Dahlin’s offensive game did suffer quite a bit in terms of scoring chance creation, although surprisingly, it was his individual opportunities that plummeted (helpfully, he shot better than ever). He played the fourth-most minutes per game in the league, almost always with partners who are a bit clueless with the puck, and as a result carried an immense burden in transition, especially transporting the puck out of the Sabres’ zone. His ambition can lead to the impression that he’s leaky defensively, but the results don’t bear that out, as his skill for recovering the puck — either from the sticks of opponents or the corners of his own end — helps limit chances against.

Tier 3: All-Star

8. Devon Toews - Colorado Avalanche

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Like Makar, Toews’ underlying numbers took a perplexing hit in the 2023-24 season as their pairing collectively struggled in minutes away from the Avs’ forward stars. But I’m not too concerned about that, considering he’s had spotless two-way results since he was playing second-pairing minutes on the Islanders, and half of fans either hadn’t heard of him or thought he was Jonathan’s brother. For someone who spends so much of his time with two of the most prolific puck players in the league, Toews is remarkably involved in his own right; he’s a speedy skater, a responsible puck-mover, surprisingly aggressive both in terms of throwing the body and denying zone entries against, and a dual threat in the offensive zone.

9. Josh Morrissey - Winnipeg Jets

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Morrissey’s overnight transformation into one of hockey’s premier offensive defencemen continues to shock me. At the start of his career, he was a strong defensive-minded complementary player on the Jets’ top pairing; after Trouba left, he was in over his head as a miscast No. 1. Then two seasons ago, he just decided to become one of the best creators in the game, doubling his scoring chance contributions both by creating more chances for himself and setting up his linemates better. Then he improved even more in the 2023-24 season, even if it wasn’t accompanied by career-high production, while restoring a decent bit of his defensive impact as well.

10. Victor Hedman - Tampa Bay Lightning

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

As surprising as it is given his future Hall of Famer pedigree, Hedman has become a bit of a tough nut to crack from an on-ice results perspective lately. Starting with the easy stuff, he remains a dominant offensive player, not only producing at an elite rate but creating scoring chances at elite rates for himself and his teammates while moving the puck in transition better than just about anybody. What’s a little trickier is the defence; for the past two seasons, his chance prevention results have been very weak despite the Lightning, which has given him a relatively softer deployment than before. One possible wrinkle: his worst results consistently come when paired with Nick Perbix, an otherwise solid defender who may be overburdened when covering for Hedman’s ambitious puck play. Unfortunately, they’ll have to make it work, as Perbix is once again pencilled in on the top pairing.

11. Evan Bouchard - Edmonton Oilers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Perhaps the most divisive defenceman in the NHL, Bouchard both benefits and suffers from his association with generational teammate Connor McDavid. Detractors charge that he’s an overrated offence-only liability who only succeeds because he can pass the puck to the best player in the world night after night and accrue points on a stacked power play. Fans point out that his underlying numbers without McDavid or even Leon Draisaitl on the ice remain superb, and his overall defensive results aren’t so bad as you’d expect from his worst moments. I side more with the latter. While Bouchard is capable of the odd maddening defensive miscue, it’s easy to forget that the Oilers gave up way fewer chances and goals with him on the ice than the Panthers did with Gustav Forsling both in the playoffs and the Final. Playing 25 minutes a night in the playoffs, by far the most of any Oiler, he was spectacular overall.

12. Jaccob Slavin - Carolina Hurricanes

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

Some of the reputational shine seems to have come off Slavin, long held to be one of if not the best stay-at-home blueliners in the game. I’m not entirely sure why; he continues to put up elite on-ice metrics by making smart plays with the puck, erecting a brick wall at his own defensive blueline, and making the slot a no-go zone with smart disruptive stick-work. Add in league-best penalty killing and a knack for avoiding minor penalties and underrated offensive impact and Slavin is aging gracefully so far.

13. Gustav Forsling - Florida Panthers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

I think it’s fair to say that the Forsling hype train has officially left the station. The former waiver wire pickup received Norris votes for the first time in his career after a strong regular season, but got plenty more attention as the Cup champion Panthers’ No. 1 defenceman in the playoffs. His flashy two-way skillset includes slick skating, end-to-end rushing, a terrific shot, and a disruptive stick in his own zone, and it’s why Florida are always comfortable sending him out against opponents’ top competition. It’s paid off too; aside from the whole “winning the Cup” thing, his 60.9 percent goal share in the past three season trails only McAvoy. There may be a little over-enthusiasm in the eagerness of some fans to rocket him into the league’s elite, but he’s got the tools to get there, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s where he is in next year’s column.

14. Erik Karlsson - Pittsburgh Penguins

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Karlsson is a pure offensive defenceman. In the 2023-24 season, he regressed from 101 to 56 points. He’s washed and useless – end of the story, right? Not so fast. While the loss of production was no doubt disappointing, his process with the puck remained elite, as usual dominating in transition, showing off elite skating, and creating more chances for his linemates than any defenceman aside from Makar. The Pens’ total inability to finish chances, especially on the powerplay, is more responsible for the drop-off than anything else aside from Karlsson’s own shooting challenges. Factor in that his defensive play, while poor, was far less appalling than when he had a total green light in San Jose, and he still ranks among the high-end defencemen in the game.

Tier 4: #1 Defenceman

15. Mattias Ekholm - Edmonton Oilers

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Sometimes, an acquisition changes everything for an organization, and slotting in Ekholm at the 2023 trade deadline had that effect on the Oilers. A spot in the Stanley Cup Final is difficult to envision if it weren’t for the hardy two-way Swede, a jack-of-all-trades player who can make the tough plays in the defensive zone, move the puck, and create scoring chances in the offensive zone. His game isn’t without its weaknesses, and he does, on occasion, get walked or turn the puck over, but he’s a big reason that Bouchard has emerged as a premier offensive defenceman.

16. Drew Doughty - Los Angeles Kings

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

It’s been a long road back for Doughty, who seemingly struggled to stay engaged through the Kings’ abbreviated rebuild and saw his on-ice impacts tank as a result. Once again, playing huge minutes on a team with contention aspirations, Doughty is once again locking down the defensive zone, making smart plays with the puck, and sending his forwards crips breakout passes leading to dangerous rush chances. In addition to having near-league-best defensive metrics in the 2023-24 season, Doughty played match-up minutes in all situations and put up his fifth 50-point season. Unless Brandt Clarke can step in and make a huge difference, Los Angeles needs Doughty to keep up this standard of play for a while yet.

17. Alex Pietrangelo - Vegas Golden Knights

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Pietrangelo may no longer be the two-way elite workhorse of his 20s, but there are few puck-movers that can match his offensive impact. He shoulders a major match-up burden for the Knights, facing elite competition with a revolving door of partners and linemates, and performs admirably nonetheless. His defensive microstats have almost always exceeded his underlying impacts since joining Vegas, indicating a strong toolkit and significant workload with perhaps a few fatal flaws, but nonetheless, he still provides a major value as a top pairing player.

Tier 5: Top-Pair Defenceman

18. Shea Theodore - Vegas Golden Knights

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Theodore’s days as an absolute analytical darling may be behind him, but the 2023 Stanley Cup champion still squeaks onto the list here. There are few better puck-movers in today’s game, as he’s capable of advancing the play from his own end and dominating in the offensive zone, dishing the puck into dangerous areas and getting his own terrific opportunities in tight. The real separating factor between his peak and the present is defensive impact; while Theodore is active and crafty in his own end when it comes to retrieving and stealing pucks, his total lack of physicality can get him in trouble and lead to dangerous chances in tight.

19. Jake Sanderson - Ottawa Senators

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

The word on Sanderson as a prospect was that when you looked past the lack of production – typically a major red flag even for a defensive minded top pick – his overall skill-set from skating to rush defence to puck movement was so sound that he projected to be a #1 defenceman. He's well on his way now, one of the most prolific puck handlers and passers in the league, a solid rush defender, active in his own end but disciplined at avoiding taking penalties, and driving play in defiance of his constantly disappointing team. Will he leap from a difficult top pairing role into #1 minutes? And will the production increase as a result? My guess is the answer to both questions is “yes.”

20. Noah Dobson - New York Islanders

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Twenty-four-year-old Maritimer Dobson built upon two successful offensive seasons with a 70-point performance in the 2023-24 season, ranking 11th in 5-on-5 points and 10th on the power play. His time-on-ice skyrocketed from 20:23 to 24:31, and he played over 25 minutes in 41 of his 79 games, shouldering a heavy burden on an injury-weakened blueline. So, has the NHL gained a new elite blueliner? I’m not totally sold yet. Neither Dobson’s scoring chance creation or underlying impacts rank him near the high end of offensive defencemen, he’s not a significant transition player, and his defensive results have generally been poor-to-mediocre, buoyed by a 93.2 on-ice save percentage this season. Would I be absolutely shocked if he gets there? No, but I also wouldn't be shocked if his work in the 2023-24 season is ultimately seen as a bit of an aberration. Either way, this coming season should be very revealing.