NHL salary cap will likely go up $1 million next season

PALM BEACH, Fla. – The NHL's salary cap is likely going to go up by a $1 million next season. 

That's the reality. 

While NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has acknowledged that it could go up more than that, it would require a financial windfall outside of current projections for that to happen. 

At this moment NHL Players are expected to owe roughly $70 million in debt to owners at the end of this season. Player debt is paid back through escrow and as long as there is escrow, the salary cap will only raise $1 million for the fourth consecutive season. 

The NHL business would need go over projections by $140 to $150 million over the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs to cover that $70 million and allow the cap to raise higher. 

The player debt was established because of the 50-50 revenue sharing model and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the NHL's business model essentially lost two full seasons of revenue because of COVID. 

Because player salaries are agreed to before the season, and contracts are signed, COVID created a situation where players where taking more than a 50 percent of the cut and had to make owners whole. 

So, what has to happen for the NHL to potentially make an extra $140 to $150 million this season?

According to Bettman, and corroborated by others at the NHL Board of Governors meeting, it would require a strong financial playoff. And the strongest financial playoffs come from larger markets and Original Six teams. 

So if you are strictly watching the playoffs from a cap perspective, start rooting for the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins to meet in the Eastern Conference final. 

Out West, a deep run by the NHL's two newest franchises, which have high-spending fanbases, would also be ideal – especially since the Chicago Blackhawks aren't going to deliver an Original Six, big-market boost. 

⁠Even if that happens, it's still unlikely the escrow debt would be paid off.

Either way, the good news is that this will likely be the last summer with a flat cap or $1 million raise.