What We Learned: When will there be an Atlantic Division shakeup?
Boston, Tampa, Toronto, Florida.
Florida, Toronto, Tampa, Boston.
Boston, Toronto, Tampa, Florida.
Florida, Boston, Toronto, Tampa.
That's how the Atlantic Division has finished the last four (mostly) full seasons, with those same teams always making the playoffs and the other four always missing out. Even in the shortened 56-game COVID season, only the Montreal Canadiens were able to squeeze into the postseason with the 18th-best record in the league because, well, someone had to be the fourth-best Canadian team. They were just three games above NHL .500 with a minus-9 goal difference, and the fact that they went to the Cup Final underscores just how unusual that season was.
The point is, we largely take it for granted that the top four in the Atlantic will be the top four again this season. And that if one of the other teams in the division does somehow make the playoffs, it will be because the underwhelming bottom-five in the Metropolitan Division cannot pull ahead of the fifth-best team in the Atlantic.
I'm not sure if that's the most plausible path to a new setup in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility. There's maybe only a 30 per cent chance that one of Montreal, the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, or Buffalo Sabres makes it, I think. But that's well within reason, and there's a PDO team or two that sneaks in every year. Of course, the Red Wings were one of the PDO teams last year and still didn’t make it due to injuries and a thin, poorly conceived roster. The same is true of Buffalo two years ago. But still. And besides, the only thing one of these teams would have to do (in theory) is finish ahead of the Islanders or Flyers or whoever.
A playoff appearance is one thing. The question I'm thinking about a week into the season, though, is whether it's plausible for one of those bottom-four teams to finish ahead of any of the teams that have dominated the division for half a decade. Because the thing with running a division for five years is that five years is a hell of a long time in hockey. Five years ago, for example, the Blues were reigning Stanley Cup champions and now they're… well, they're the Blues. Guys age, guys leave, and teams that keep finishing near the top of the standings don't exactly get much of a chance to cycle young talent into the roster. To contextualize how distant "five years ago" is: David Backes, Torey Krug, and Zdeno Chara were still on the Bruins back then. Freddie Andersen was the Leafs' starting goalie. Mike Babcock was still coaching the Leafs. Tampa was coming off getting swept by Columbus in the first round and hasn't won anything yet. Mike Hoffman led Florida in goals and Keith Yandle was still on the team. So a ton of guys have cycled off those rosters, a ton of young talent has come of age on others. Ask the Lightning if it's easy to stay at the top of a division, let alone the league, for any kind of extended period of time.
There's always wiggle room in this league. The Bruins could easily take a huge step back if Joonas Korpisalo looks like he did on opening night (or, if you prefer, for the vast majority of his career); his floor is that low. Maybe Florida, coming off a lengthy Cup run, with the potential for Sergei Bobrovsky to come back to earth a bit, and now facing a few weeks without Sasha Barkov, gives up a few extra wins. It's really easy to see where a little aging and the offseason attrition hurts Tampa. And Toronto, I mean, they're the Leafs.
But for all the reasons you can say any of those teams might take a step back, how confident would you be that any of the other four would take a step forward of equal or greater size? Apart from a percentage-fuelled run, it's just hard to see any teams bridging what was, at minimum, the seven-point gap between Detroit and Tampa. There was a 14-point difference between Buffalo and Tampa. That's the reality of how much has to change for this division to feel much different. It's not impossible, but it is very unlikely.
Again, none of these teams would turn their nose up at finishing fifth in the division and being the second Wild Card team. They've all gone so long without a non-COVID playoff qualification — seven years for Ottawa and Montreal, eight for Detroit, and you don't want to know how many for Buffalo — that anything is way, way, way better than nothing. But if being eighth in the East is the baseline goal, that's kind of a bummer, and the most likely outcome is that they're cannon fodder. Hopefully, one of them can start dreaming a little bigger this season, but they're gonna have to show they can reach that next gear.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: I know who the opponent was, but I'm starting to think this guy might be the real deal.
Boston Bruins: The key to the future in Boston, both near- and long-term, is late picks working out up and down the lineup. This feels like it could be the first in a while.
Buffalo Sabres: They finally got a win and they have a soft all-road schedule coming up this week (Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago). If they want to be taken seriously, they have to get up around .500.
Calgary Flames: Well, it's something.
Carolina Hurricanes: Interesting read.
Chicago: That's gotta feel good.
Colorado Avalanche: This is why they claimed that other goalie off waivers. They have a team save percentage of .714 right now. Literally unbelievable, even through just two games.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Just brutal injury news once again. At least they got their first win, over a marquee opponent.
Dallas Stars: They don't let ya start much better than 2-0-0 where you've never trailed your opponent, so that's what it's all about.
Detroit Red Wings: If this is their goalie, maybe they'll be fine. I guess we'll wait and see.
Edmonton Oilers: The locals are turning already. This is what I live for.
Florida Panthers: Yeah I know there were a few extenuating circumstances but you can't be losing to the Sabres, boys. You're the Stanley Cup champions.
Los Angeles Kings: If you can get a point out of a game where you score just once? That's better than nothing.
Minnesota Wild: Yeah I mean there's a reason a lot of teams don't do it.
Montreal Canadiens: I guess this is why they hired the coach.
Nashville Predators: Well isn't this the whole question?
New Jersey Devils: There's not one person on the planet who accurately predicted their current leader in both points and goals. Not one.
New York Islanders: The headlineThe headline oversells the surprising nature of what's said here, but it's undeniably interesting.
New York Rangers: You can tell the Rangers lost because the word "controversy" is right in the headline.
Philadelphia Flyers: "Subpar goaltending," you say? Guess you didn't hear about how tough it was for those guys last season.
Pittsburgh Penguins: That's a lot of points.
San Jose Sharks: And I've just got to learn nuclear physics.
Seattle Kraken: I mean, I'm interested for sure, in the way that I am interested in nautical disasters.
St. Louis Blues: Okay so the Blues have a new food stand at their games where they just sell Wendy's Frosties with mix-ins. In my opinion this should be worth 25 points in the standings and a bye straight to the Western Conference Final.
Tampa Bay Lightning: This would be a pretty astonishing feat but it's also weirdly possible?
Toronto Maple Leafs: Aww, don't put "boring" right in the headline.
Utah [fill in the blank later]: Can't ask for a better start than this.
Vancouver Canucks: Yeah, but should it take "back-to-back home losses to Calgary and Philly" time?
Vegas Golden Knights: There are worse ways to start the season, that's for sure.
Washington Capitals: Brutal.
Winnipeg Jets: Fun little storyline.
Play of the Weekend
We get a goal like this every year or two. I love them all equally. They're so stupid.
Gold Star Award
Every time Sam Bennett scores a goal this year, he is going to cover the adoption fee for a pet from from the local Humane Society. Hope he breaks the single-season goal record.
Minus of the Weekend
Real stat: The Oilers entered Sunday with a .000 save percentage while shorthanded. In my opinion that needs to be better.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "BannedfromCDC" is in the lab:
To Vancouver Canucks:
To Carolina Hurricanes:
